BC copper 2509 contract fluctuated and closed lower, with limited US dollar support and bullish and bearish factors constraining copper prices [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract opened at 70,320 yuan/mt and closed higher during the day. In the night session, BC copper opened lower but moved higher as bulls increased their positions, fluctuating upward to reach 70,590 yuan/mt before pulling back as longs reduced their holdings. After the daytime opening, the center of copper prices fluctuated considerably downward, touching a low and finally closing at 70,200 yuan/mt, down 420 yuan/mt, or 0.59%. Open interest reached 2,930 lots, decreasing by 212 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume was 1,919 lots, down 1,338 lots from the previous day. On the macro front, the US dollar index pulled back due to Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook, raising concerns about central bank independence, which supported the rise in copper prices. Goldman Sachs stated that crude oil prices still have downside room, affecting copper prices to fall. Additionally, the 50% tariff imposed by the US on India took effect, increasing trade uncertainties and limiting the gains in copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, recent imports have been limited, with LME inventory increasing by 1,100 mt to 156,100 mt. On the demand side, downstream purchases remained mainly for rigid needs, with low sales sentiment.

The SHFE copper contract closed at 79,180 yuan/mt. If the BC copper 2509 contract is 70,200 yuan/mt, its post-tax price would be 79,326 yuan/mt, resulting in a price difference of -146 yuan/mt between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper contract, maintaining an inverted spread that narrowed compared to the previous day.